Weekend TL;DR: Western PAC-3 stockpiles critically depleted as Iran threatens European bases and Russia escalates.

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Headlines

Western missile-defence strategy in critical failure — PAC-3 stocks exhausted. Hartpunkt's analysis finds the US has expended roughly two-thirds of its entire PAC-3 interceptor stockpile in Middle East operations, with European nations reporting effectively zero interceptor reserves. Combined with this week's established PAC-3 MSE and SM-3 production bottlenecks, this is the starkest public assessment yet of the air-defence gap — and a direct challenge to the assumption that Europe can reconstitute credible missile defence on any near-term timeline. Hartpunkt

Iran threatens strikes on US military targets across Europe. Iran's new Chief of General Staff has publicly threatened strikes against US military installations in Europe and named ten European nations as high-risk for supporting US operations against Tehran. Combined with Iran's simultaneous threat to close the Strait of Hormuz to all Gulf-state oil exports, Tehran is signalling a willingness to broaden the conflict to European soil — a direct threat to bases hosting US and NATO forces across the continent. EurAsian Times

US Navy unveils AIM-424 Malice — 460 km air-to-air missile. Raytheon's AIM-424 "Malice" very long-range air-to-air missile emerged from classified status at the 2026 Tailhook Symposium, with a range exceeding 460 km. Designed for the F/A-18E/F, F-35C, and future F/A-XX, it fundamentally extends the carrier air wing's BVR engagement envelope and sets a new benchmark that European long-range AAM programmes — including Meteor successors — will need to respond to. The War Zone

Poland's East Shield anti-drone barrier: 18 batteries, 15 billion PLN. Warsaw has detailed the technological backbone of its East Shield programme: 18 SAN anti-drone battery modules at a cost of approximately 15 billion PLN, supplemented by natural terrain features including forests and swamps along the eastern border. The largest single national C-UAS investment in Europe to date, and a concrete template for how NATO's eastern flank is hardening below the missile-defence layer. Defence24

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Germany & DACH

Germany's €12B deep-strike investment — ELSA participation confirmed. Berlin's planned €12 billion commitment to European long-range strike capabilities is now confirmed by a second source, reinforcing the Opex360 weekend reporting. Alongside the previously revealed UK-Germany bilateral hypersonic programme, this positions Germany as a serious sovereign deep-strike investor for the first time — with significant implications for how post-NGF combat air investment is structured. Defence Network

Cobra 600 maiden flight confirmed — IRIS-T drone carrier validated. The Aviationist provides additional technical detail on the Cobra 600's first flight: the jet-powered drone is specifically designed to carry and launch Diehl Defence IRIS-T air-to-air missiles, not merely transport them. This makes it a genuine remote weapons carrier concept — directly relevant to European loyal-wingman design and to how Germany might reconstitute air-delivered intercept capacity given ground-based interceptor depletion. The Aviationist

Germany building counter-drone test site in Saxony-Anhalt. Berlin is establishing a dedicated C-UAS technology testing ground in Saxony-Anhalt to trial systems against Russia's shadow-operations drone threat. The site will allow live-fire and electronic counter-measure trials — a necessary step toward fielding coherent C-UAS doctrine across the Bundeswehr. NZZ International

Slovak traffic cameras — Russian ISR of weapons routes — a German concern too. Slovakia's purchase of remotely controllable traffic cameras routed through a Cypriot front company, apparently enabling Russian SMS-command surveillance of weapons supply routes to Ukraine, is a live hybrid-intelligence threat to the entire Central European logistics corridor — including German territory. NZZ International

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Worth Watching

Saab ACP full-scale model displayed — naming clarity. EDR Magazine clarifies that Saab's CCA concept shown on 22 August is formally designated the Autonomous Combat Platform (ACP), not only A3-001 as earlier reported — watch for programme structure and Swedish Armed Forces procurement intent to become clearer this week. EDR Magazine

China's fourth carrier — potentially nuclear-powered — visibly progressing. New imagery confirms accelerating construction; GCAP partner Japan is the most directly exposed ally, but carrier-based combat air planning across NATO should update threat assumptions. The War Zone

RUSI challenges UK Digital Targeting Web's legal assumptions. The think-tank warns that the programme misunderstands which safeguards can be legally accelerated — an ethics and V&V signal for any European AI-enabled targeting programme, including Combat Cloud descendants. UK Defence Journal